A study published in The Lancet, conducted through international collaboration—including contributions from Dr. Péter Gaál and Dr. Tamás Joó—presents comprehensive analyses and estimates of past and future fertility trends across 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2100.
The research found that human civilization is rapidly approaching a state of persistently low fertility. However, in low-income regions—particularly in countries and territories in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa—relatively high fertility rates lead to demographic disparities. While much of the world struggles with challenges related to low fertility, many low-income countries continue to face issues associated with high fertility throughout the 21st century.
Persistently low fertility rates—and the resulting population decline and aging—pose significant economic challenges and place increasing pressure on healthcare systems, social security programs, and labor markets. Conversely, the dramatic shift in live births from middle- and high-income regions to low-income regions presents growing concerns regarding the sustainability and support of an expanding young population, particularly in areas most affected by global warming, those with political instability, economic vulnerability, and fragile healthcare systems.
Future trends in fertility rates and live births will drive global demographic shifts, influence international relations and the geopolitical landscape, create new migration challenges, and place significant demands on global aid networks. Addressing these issues will require focused and collaborative efforts.
Read the full article by clicking the following link: The Lancet Article