Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4.3 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. However, in recent years, the decline in the number of smokers has slowed in many countries, and although several proposals have been made for a smoke-free generation, none of them have been realized so far. Dr Péter Gaál and Dr Tamás Joó, researchers at MEMT, co-authored a study published in the Public Health Special Issue of The Lancet in October 2024. This international collaboration projects how smoking and the resulting lost years of life might change if current trends continue and the potential effects of additional smoking reduction measures.
The research examined three smoking prevalence scenarios for 204 countries, disaggregated by 5-year age group and sex. The forecasts take into account the prevalence, intensity, and duration of smoking, as well as the risk-reducing effect of quitting smoking. The study applied a new forecasting framework that dynamically integrates demographic changes and other health-influencing factors.
The main findings suggest that if current smoking trends continue, the rate of lost years of life will remain significant. However, more aggressive measures to reduce smoking could lead to very substantial health benefits.
The study emphasizes the need for globally stricter anti-smoking policies beyond the current regulations to prevent an increase in smoking-related health burdens in the coming decades, preserve the positive changes achieved so far, and reduce the number of lost years of life due to smoking.
Read the full article on the following link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00166-X/fulltext